Global adjustment to US disengagement from the world trading system

US trade policy in the Trump administration is protectionist, raising tariffs outside of WTO rules, threatening trade wars, withdrawing from existing trade agreements, and negotiating new bilateral trade deals rather than free trade agreements. The reaction of the rest of the world has been to support the WTO rules-based trading system and to pursue new and expanded regional trade agreements that do not include the US. The result may be US disengagement from the world trading system, with countries diverting trade around the US. We use a global computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to analyze changes in trade and production patterns for a variety of scenarios, including US trade wars. We find that adjustment to US disengagement is feasible—the changes in trade shares as countries divert trade are modest and achievable, with very little impact on the volume of global trade. If the US engages in trade wars with major partners, the best response for other trade partners is to sit out the trade war, accept higher US tariffs, and gain markets from global trade diversion around the US. Finally, because of indirect effects, widespread tariffs fail to benefit the protected sectors—a fallacy of composition in a protectionist trade policy.     

京津冀节能减排政策措施的差异与协同研究

在对京津冀1981年以来节能减排政策措施进行量化处理的基础上,建立针对节能减排政策措施有效性的计量模型,分析了京津冀节能减排政策措施的演变状况,并探究京津冀节能减排政策措施对其节能减排效果影响的差异性.研究结果表明:京津冀节能减排政策颁布经历了早期各年份相对零散、缺乏连续性到新世纪以来政策颁布数量显著增多、政策总体力度逐渐增大的过程,但三地政策总效力的增加主要是由于节能减排政策颁布数量增多引起的;京津冀三地在政策的制定过程中更多的是趋于实现短期目标,政策整体缺乏系统性和权威性;人事措施、行政措施、引导措施、财税措施、金融措施等不同节能减排政策措施对京津冀节能和减排的有效性具有明显的差异;三地对不同政策措施的使用方式、使用程度方面存在明显的差异,这对京津冀协同推进节能减排的治理工作提出挑战.论文还从京津冀完善单一节能减排政策措施的使用、加强市场手段的应用及京津冀区域协同治理等方面提出了相应政策建议.     

试论社会治理背景下政府与市场关系的经济法规制

政府与市场的关系问题是经济法规制的基于问题，如何正确看待政府与市场在经济生态系统内各自的功能及作用，是经济法规制的核心问题。因为这样的认识直接导致了经济立法的体系构建与内容规则。经济法规制是国家实施经济治理与尊重市场调节的基本依据，也是施行经济法治与社会治理的根本前提。所以，从社会治理的背景下来讨论经济法规制的社会经济发展的制度条件及制度生成条件，有利于真正建立和完善经济法规制的体系和内容，从而使得经济法治生态化地融入社会治理的结构体系内，达到优化社会制度以促进经济发展的目的。     

大学英语视听说翻转课堂教学模式的构建与实施

“翻转课堂”，即将知识传授和知识内化的顺序颠倒安排。知识传授由学生在课前自主完成，知识内化则放到课堂上实现，即从“课堂授课听讲+课后完成作业”转变为“课前自主学习+课堂协作探究”。从分析当前大学英语视听说的教学现状入手，阐述了以TBLT为基础的英语视听说翻转课堂的构建与实施，并进一步指出这种新型教学模式所带来的优势和挑战，以期为大学英语视听说教学更为合理、有效地利用翻转课堂模式提供一定的借鉴和参考。     

Transcultural tension and the politics of sewage management in (post) colonial Lagos

ABSTRACT

The culture of sewage management in Lagos dates back to pit latrines (Shalanga) in precolonial Lagos; this culture gave way to bucket latrines in the wake of British colonial administration in Lagos and then to mobile toilets in postcolonial Lagos. The introduction of bucket latrines created a new job category known as Agbepo (night-soil men) and a new material practice in the management of faecal waste among ethnicities and races inhabiting the urban space of Lagos. This material practice, I argue, created ethnic tensions and reveals the extent to which varying perceptions of sewage management determine how people perceive and relate with one another in Lagos. To validate my argument, my paper proceeds from the vantage point of the phenomenology of disgust, drawing on Chinua Achebe’s No Longer at Ease, archival materials, and selected live interviews to examine how varying perceptions of sewage management play out in the construction of relationships in Lagos.     

Professional quality of life of adult protective service workers

Adult Protective Services (APS) workers are exposed to substantial occupational hazards and job stress, but these stressors are underdocumented. Therefore, we sought to describe APS workers’ work environments and responses to occupational hazards and stressors, including compassion fatigue, burnout, and secondary traumatic stress. Survey data were gathered with closed-ended questionnaires administered to APS workers in an urban setting. Virtually all workers (97%) reported exposure to one or more environmental hazards in their work, and 80% reported hazard exposure in the past month. Workers also reported mixed responses to their work environment and to experiences with supervision. A sizable minority (22.7%) was at high risk for burnout, 24.6% were at risk for secondary traumatic stress, and 19.9% reported low compassion satisfaction. The results document multiple stressors in APS work. The APS partner is committed to ongoing efforts to better support its staff, and these findings can inform future efforts to enhance supervisor support and worker self-care, to minimize burnout and secondary traumatic stress.     

Incremental Sampling Methodology: Applications for Background Screening Assessments

This article presents the findings from a numerical simulation study that was conducted to evaluate the performance of alternative statistical analysis methods for background screening assessments when data sets are generated with incremental sampling methods (ISMs). A wide range of background and site conditions are represented in order to test different ISM sampling designs. Both hypothesis tests and upper tolerance limit (UTL) screening methods were implemented following U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) guidance for specifying error rates. The simulations show that hypothesis testing using two‐sample t ‐tests can meet standard performance criteria under a wide range of conditions, even with relatively small sample sizes. Key factors that affect the performance include unequal population variances and small absolute differences in population means. UTL methods are generally not recommended due to conceptual limitations in the technique when applied to ISM data sets from single decision units and due to insufficient power given standard statistical sample sizes from ISM.     

大数据驱动下的政府治理机制研究——基于2020年后精准扶贫领域的返贫阻断分析

大数据时代已经到来，大数据驱动下的政府治理发生何种改变，目前相关研究较少。当前政府治理的考验集中在2020年实现全面脱贫后精准扶贫领域的返贫阻断。文章以该领域为切入点，探索大数据驱动下政府治理的内在机制。研究发现：大数据背景下，政府治理能力催生出新的核心能力，即数据治理能力。数据治理能力驱动下，政府治理主体多元化有利于实现政府治理资源的宽范围、精准化动员；政府治理方式实现经验式决策向数据化决策转变，有利于实现政府资源的高效率和公平配置；政府治理客体的精准识别，有利于政府资源的精准化和最优化运用。但是客观上必须具备数据治理能力，主观上必须按照大数据驱动的要求重构政府治理体系（包括治理主体、治理方式和治理客体），才能真正实现以数据治理驱动政府治理，进而提高政府治理能力的目的。而数据治理能力客观上也加速了政府治理体系的重构，进而加快了政府治理能力的提升，并最终提高政府治理绩效。在对标大数据应用不同阶段分析常规式返贫阻断和大数据返贫阻断的不足和差距的基础上，笔者提出重构政府治理体系和提升数据治理能力等针对性建议。     

On the Status and Function of Judicial Justice in Social Governance Innovation

Social governance innovation is a basic requirement of China's socialist construction, and an important guarantee that people can live and work in peace and enjoy long-term stability and order. Strengthening and innovating social governance has great significance for the modernization of the national governance system and governance capacity, and this is where judicial justice plays a unique role at the level of government, society, and the individual. That is, judicial justice is the key to transforming governmental functions; the guarantee of a new-type social construction; and the guide to upgrading autonomy at the grass-roots level. To achieve judicial justice, we must popularize the idea of the rule of law, improve judicial work style and innovate judicial institutions.     

双循环新发展格局下中国双向直接投资研究

构建以国内大循环为主体、国内国际双循环相互促进的新发展格局,是对未来中国经济发展路径做出的重大战略部署,作为连接国内国际双循环的纽带,双向直接投资的发展战略和路径面临重塑和调整。研究认为,应当以推动新时代科技创新和产业升级为目标,提高双向直接投资的质量,畅通供应链和产业链; 以“一带一路”倡议为依托,通过更高水平的双向投资带动中国与沿线国家贸易水平的提高; 建设高水平自贸区和自贸港,提高对外开放标准,更高质量吸引外资,提升参与国际大循环的技术含量和自主性; 在畅通要素流动领域,建立更加完善的现代化物流体系,建设更高标准的要素流通市场体系,降低制度性交易费用,提高生产率和对高质量外资的吸引能力。